Church Growth Data Analysis and Interpretation

This article describes three types of church growth data analysis: the Population to Church Ratio, The Number of New Congregations Needed and The Number of Evangelicals per New Church Needed. Examples are provided from Eastern Europe of how church growth data can be interpreted and results communicated using graphs and maps. Step by step instruction is provided for certain calculations, graphing and mapping tasks.

Outline:
A. Church Growth Data Analysis

1. The Church to Population Ratio
2. Total Number of New Congregations Needed
3. Evangelicals per New Church Needed

B. An Example of Church Growth Analysis from Eastern Europe.

1. Analysis and Interpretation of the data
2. Communication Results

A. Church Growth Data Analysis

1. The Church to Population Ratio

The Church to Population Ratio is one measure used to identify where new churches need to be established. Jim Montgomery in DAWN 2000 postulates that one evangelical church for every 1,000 people is ideal. It is assumed that this church can then effectively make disciples of 1,000 people. This number may be adjusted in specific situations to address contextual needs. For example, if a village has a population of 1,000 persons, but the population is made up of two distinct people groups with different languages, then it is likely that at least two churches will be needed in this village to disciple the people. In other situations, especially where there is external opposition and believers meet in homes, more than one church for every 1,000 people will be necessary. On the other hand, in urban settings, churches tend to be larger and thus have greater potential to disciple a larger number of people, say, 2,000 or 5,000 or more in the case of mega-churches. Keeping these realities in mind, Montgomery’s estimate of one evangelical church for every 1,000 people is probably a good place to start for country-wide analysis
The church to population ratio is determined by dividing the population of a region by the number of churches. In our work, usually we have in view evangelical churches. So the actual formula is population/the number of evangelical churches. Using a spreadsheet is very helpful in performing multiple calculations of this kind.

2. Total Number of New Congregations Needed

The same data allows us to estimate the number of congregations needed in a country. This is determined by taking the population and dividing it by 1,000 (the “ideal Church to Population Ratio). From this number subtract the present number of congregations. This yields the number of congregations needed. This information is useful in establishing growth goals.

3. Evangelicals per New Church Needed

If we know the population of a region, the number of congregations and the number of evangelicals, we can evaluate the potential of the Harvest Force to start the needed congregations. The previous section explained how to determine the number of new congregations needed. Now to calculate the number of evangelicals per new church needed, divide the number of evangelicals by the number of new congregations needed. The quotient will be the ratio of Evangelicals per new church needed. This ratio is useful in determining how much outside help will be needed and what kind of help is needed.
Where there are less than 20 evangelicals for every new church that is needed, significant outside help will be needed. This could range from Pioneer Church planters when there is less than a hand full of believers to start new churches to partnerships where outside workers train and assist local believers. Where there are 50 or more evangelicals for every new church needed, there should be enough workers available to start the needed churches. These workers may still need to be assisted by outside trainers and coaches until local leadership can be equipped. It is possible that regions with more than 50 workers for every new church will be able to send out workers to needier areas.

View the attached file to continue reading this article, beginning with the Example of Church Growth Analysis and Interpretation from Eastern Europe.